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Design, Testing, and Optimization of Trading Systems, by Robert Pardo
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A practical, hands-on guide to setting up, adjusting, and trading mechanical systems that requires no computer or programming skills! Here’s everything you’ll need to develop and verify each stage of a profitable trading strategy, from formulation through testing to real-time trading. Armed with the author’s battery of easily accomplished testing and optimization techniques — many never before published — you’ll design a workable trading strategy, reliably measure its profit potential and risk, and then test it to see if it works in real-time trading. No matter what your level of trading expertise, now you can swiftly isolate and eliminate the causes of trading failure and make the decisions essential to profitable computerized trading. You’ll discover:
- The seven major components of mechanical trading strategies and their uses
- When and how to use fast, accurate, and realistic computer simulations to evaluate a strategy’s trading performance without risking precious capital
- The best ways to tailor a trading strategy to fit the unique personalities of widely different markets
- What to expect from a trading model in real-time trading
- How to judge trading performance with respect to historical testing performance
- Sales Rank: #1202212 in Books
- Published on: 1992-08-12
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.41" h x .79" w x 6.32" l, .0 pounds
- Binding: Hardcover
- 176 pages
From the Publisher
Provides easily understood, hands-on guidance for futures and options traders who are not computer literate. Using an approach that can be followed by whichever method of technical analysis readers prefer, it quickly and efficiently demonstrates exactly how to set up and adjust a successful trading model for a wide range of trading techniques and products, market considerations and risk profiles.
From the Inside Flap
The Wiley Trader’s Advantage is a new series of concise, highly focused books designed to keep savvy futures, options, stocks, bonds, and commodities traders abreast of the latest, successful strategies and techniques used by the keenest minds in the business. Each title delivers timely, cutting-edge guidance on a key aspect of trading, including trading systems, portfolio management methods, computerized forecasting, and systems optimization. Design, Testing, and Optimization of Trading Systems is designed to help savvy traders to formulate and test trading structures to amplify trading profit and avoid real-time trading issues. This is the first book to offer practical, hands-on guidance for setting up, adjusting, and trading mechanical systems without requiring computer language or programming skills. And its flexible, user-friendly approach can be easily followed regardless of which form of technical analysis you’re currently using — stochastics, moving averages, chart patterns, RSI, breakout methods, and others. Here, finally, is the systematic, empirical guidance you demand to develop and verify each stage of a profitable trading strategy, from formulation through testing to real-time trading. Armed with the author’s battery of easily accomplished testing and optimization techniques — many never before published — you’ll design a workable trading strategy, reliably measure its profit potential and risk, then test it to see if it works in real-time trading. Moreover, you’ll learn how to optimize the strategy over a variety of different markets and time periods, and maintain its peak performance in the face of trends, volatility and liquidity changes, and new trading conditions. To insure testing accuracy, the author identifies the symptoms of overfitting and supplies proven guidelines for avoiding it. Design, Testing, and Optimization of Trading Systems recognizes that different traders have different levels of trading capital, time available, profit requirements, and risk tolerance. Whether you’re seeking to enhance your trading profit or make a start at strategy testing, you’ll find the perfect mix of practical instruction and advice to develop, evaluate, and apply a winning mechanical trading system that suits your exact needs.
About the Author
About the author ROBERT PARDO is the founder and President of The Pardo Corporation, one of the world’s leading developers of trading and technical analysis microcomputer software. Beginning with its release of Chartist, in 1983, his firm has continuously updated its software line with such programs as Lightning, Blast, Advanced Chartist, Advanced Trader, and Expert Trader. Mr. Pardo is also a frequent contributor of articles to such magazines as Futures, Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities, and Wall Street Micro Investor. About the Series Editor PERRY J. KAUFMAN has over 20 years experience in systems design for trading strategies, hedging, and arbitrage in derivative products. He is the author of five books, including The New Commodity Trading Systems and Methods (Wiley) and numerous articles. A resident of Bermuda, Mr. Kaufman is the Managing Director of Comrand Limited, a research and development firm.
Most helpful customer reviews
15 of 18 people found the following review helpful.
A good introduction to trading system development
By Rob Ryley
Let me state my biases up front. I've always been rather suspicious of so-called "mechanical" trading strategies, although I'm a strong supporter of a technical approach to the market.
Technical analysis, for me, has always been about individual market participants, as a group, are likely to respond to price action to further their interest for profits, or to conserve capital. Market players are not mindless robots who are as predictable as coin flips, but people pursuing goals, and who learn from history. How the market reacts to news and fundamental info is extremely important from this point of view.
While there are things that can be learned from looking at price action, any algorithm that can extract profits from markets is likely to be short lived. With the advent of cheap, powerful computers, it is all too easy to "test" a system on historical data, only to have it fail in real time. Proper system testing is difficult to do.
Even if testing is done properly, it is likely to have been found by a significant number of smart, well-capitalized people long before you or I ever came onto the scene, making historical test results misleading, possibly unprofitable.
The fact is, markets change, and the context of price action in the past may be totally different to the current market environment. How do market systems account for market change, while still producing valid results?
This book allayed some of my fears. Since system testing IS hard to do, it is unlikely that a significant percentage of people will discover the signals of a profitable system, making the method unprofitable.
Even a skeptic such as myself will admit that proper historical testing can, at the very least, encourage thought about future market conditions, and prepare for various scenarios.
Most important (to me), system testing provides a reasonable method for adapting to changing markets. As new data comes in, the model can, and should, change.
This book teaches you how to do proper system testing, so you can have confidence in your results.
I deduct 1 star from the emphasis on the use of a frequentist statistical methodology. It is becoming clear in economics that talk of "long run frequencies" makes little sense for historical events that occur in a particular place, or a particular time, and are not likely to be repeated.
The use of Bayesian methods based on a subjective interpretation of probability (ie. degrees of belief), are growing in usage, and can provide more appropriate answers to certain questions that the "frequentist" methods do not.
For experienced technicians, I can recommend it.
19 of 19 people found the following review helpful.
Excellent how-to on applying simple statistical analysis
By Amazon Customer
A great instructional book on the application of statistical analysis to trading systems. It's excellent for novice trading system developers who don't yet understand the importance of rigorous testing or discretionary traders who aren't yet aware of their need for a carefully and thoroughly tested trading system--a real eye-opener. While the text is somewhat repetitive and the references to software are extremely dated, the techniques within are timeless and are boiled down so that non-mathematicians can easy understand and apply them. This book helps you bypass the slow process of learning system development by trial-and-error and gives you a clear step-by-step breakdown of how to ensure that your trading system is sound and "robust." However, for those of you looking for trading system recipes/indicators/source code, you won't find it here. Coming up with ideas for a trading system and setting them up is entirely up to you--this book only describes the process of forging an existing trading system into a robust system that can be used successfully in real-time trading. A must-read for any serious trading system developer!
12 of 15 people found the following review helpful.
One of the few really good books on the subject
By Dr. Jeffrey O. Katz
If you are trying to develop a profitable trading system, this is a book you really should read. It is one of the very few good books out there on the subject of developing an automated trading engine that will withstand the test of time and hold up when the bets are placed. It covers all the critical issues involved in successful trading system development: data, backtesting, optimization (and over-optimization), issues of robustness, and more. I would not hesitate to recommend it.
Jeffrey Owen Katz, Ph.D.
Author (with Donna McCormick): "The Encyclopedia of Trading Strategies" (McGraw Hill, 2000).
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